August 15, 2007

State of the Race: Intrade and Endorsement Race

The much anticipated, often imitated, never duplicated endorsement race update is here! Before we get to it, though, let’s take a post-Ames look at the Intrade numbers (movement is from the beginning of August to now):

Rank Name Value Movement
1 Giuliani 36.5 -0.2
2 Romney 23.2 +4.4
3 Thompson 21.8 -9.0
4 McCain 6.4 +0.6
5 Paul 5.7 +2.6
6 Huckabee 3.5 +2.7
7 Gingrich 3.4 +0.2
8 Hagel 0.3 +0.1
9 Brownback 0.2 E
  Tancredo 0.2 +0.1
11 Hunter 0.1 E
  T Thompson

The big news here has to be Thompson’s collapse of support, coupled with Romney nearing his highest closing value ever (23.8) which threw Fred out of first place all the way down to third and elevated Romney into second. Additionally, the investors are interested in Mike Huckabee after his second place Ames showing (and not so interested in Brownback), although they are still wary of what it means for Huckabee: on another contract they give the Huckster a 50/50 chance of dropping out of the race by the end of 2007.

Now onto the Endorsement Race chart with a reminder of what the tiers mean:

First Tier - Current Senators, Representatives, and Governors
Second Tier - Former Senators, Representatives, and Governors
Third Tier - RNC Committee Members
Fourth Tier - The number of states the candidate has won the endorsement of a majority of state legislators.

Here’s your endorsement race, with the names below the fold. As always, if a name is left off it was not done intentionally. If you see an endorsement I missed, tell me about it in the comments (and include a link):

Brownback Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Romney Thompson
First Tier 2 21 3 6 30 31 19
Second Tier 1 3 1 0 6 8 3
Third Tier 0 0 0 0 3 26 1
Fourth Tier 0 0 0 0 1 3 2

First Tier
US Sen Pat Roberts (R-KS)
US Rep Todd Tiahrt (R-KS)

Second Tier
Ex-US Rep Jim Bunn (R-OR)

First Tier
US Sen David Vitter (R-LA)
US Rep Mary Bono (R-CA)
US Rep David Dreier (R-CA)
US Rep Devin Nunes (R-CA)
US Rep Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
US Rep Ed Royce (R-CA)
US Rep George Radanovich (R-CA)
US Rep Judy Biggert (R-IL)
US Rep Jerry Weller (R-IL)
US Rep Charles Boustany (R-LA)
US Rep Candice Miller (R-MI)
US Rep Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ)
US Rep Jon Porter (R-NV)
US Rep Peter King (R-NY)
US Rep Vito Fossella (R-NY)
US Rep Jim Walsh (R-NY)
US Rep Charlie Dent (R-PA)
US Rep Phil English (R-PA)
US Rep Jim Gerlach (R-PA)
US Rep Pete Sessions (R-TX)
US Rep Dave Reichert (R-WA)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov Bob Ehrlich (R-MD)
Ex-Gov Paul Cellucci (R-MA)
Ex-US Rep Jim Nussle (R-IA)

First Tier
US Rep John Boozman (R-AR)
US Rep Don Young (R-AK)
Gov Mike Rounds (R-SD)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov David Beasley (SC)

First Tier
US Rep Terry Everett (R-AL)
US Rep Trent Franks (R-AZ)
US Rep Bill Young (R-FL)
US Rep Jim Saxton (R-NJ)
US Rep John Culberson (R-TX)
US Rep Ralph Hall (R-TX)

First Tier
US Sen Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
US Sen Susan Collins (ME)
US Sen Olympia Snowe (ME)
US Sen Trent Lott (R-MS)
US Sen Richard Burr (R-NC)
US Sen Gordon Smith (R-OR)
US Sen Lindsay Graham (R-SC)
US Sen John Thune (R-SD)
US Sen John Warner (R-VA)
US Rep Spencer Bachus (R-AL)
US Rep Jim Kolbe (R-AZ)
US Rep Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
US Rep Rick Renzi (R-AZ)
US Rep John Shadegg (R-AZ)
US Rep Dan Lungren (R-CA)
US Rep Christopher Shays (R-CT)
US Rep Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
US Rep Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)
US Rep Ric Keller (R-FL)
US Rep Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL)
US Rep Mark Kirk (R-IL)
US Rep Ray LaHood (R-IL)
US Rep John Shimkus (R-IL)
US Rep Fred Upton (R-MI)
US Rep Chip Pickering (R-MS)
US Rep Steve LaTourette (R-OH)
US Rep Todd Platts (R-PA)
Gov Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov Jon Huntsman, Jr (R-UT)
Gov Mitch Daniels (R-IN)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov Jane Swift (R-MA)
Ex-Gov Frank Keating (R-OK)
Ex-Gov Tom Ridge (R-PA)
Ex-Gov Buddy Roemer (R-LA)
Ex-US Sen Phil Gramm (R-SC)
Ex-US Sen Mike DeWine (R-OH)

Third Tier
Alec Poitevint (GA)
Holly Hughes (MI)
Chuck Yob (MI)

Fourth Tier
South Carolina

First Tier
US Sen Larry Craig (R-ID)
US Sen Jim DeMint (R-SC)
US Sen Robert Bennett (R-UT)
US Sen Orrin Hatch (R-UT)
US Sen Wayne Allard (R-CO)
US Rep Robert Aderholt (R-AL)
US Rep Mike Rogers (R-AL)
US Rep John Campbell (R-CA)
US Rep Buck McKeon (R-CA)
US Rep Ginny Brown-Waite (R-FL)
US Rep Tom Feeney (R-FL)
US Rep Phil Gingrey (R-GA)
US Rep John Linder (R-GA)
US Rep Tom Price (R-GA)
US Rep Mike Simpson (R-ID)
US Rep Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
US Rep Ron Lewis (R-KY)
US Rep Hal Rogers (R-KY)
US Rep Ed Whitfield (R-KY)
US Rep Rodney Alexander (R-LA)
US Rep Jim McCrery (R-LA)
US Rep Dave Camp (R-MI)
US Rep Pete Hoekstra (R-MI)
US Rep Joe Knollenberg (R-MI)
US Rep Vernon Ehlers (R-MI)
US Rep Ralph Regula (R-OH)
US Rep Bill Shuster (R-PA)
US Rep Mike Conaway (R-TX)
US Rep Lamar Smith (R-TX)
Gov Matt Blunt (R-MO)
Gov Don Carcieri (R-RI)

Second Tier
Ex-Gov William Weld (R-MA/NY)
Ex-Gov Jim Edwards (R-SC)
Ex-Gov Bill Owens (R-CO)
Ex-Gov Kenny Guinn (R-NV)
Ex-US Sen Jim Talent (R-MO)
Ex-US Rep Tommy Hartnett (R-SC)
Ex-US Rep Bob Beauprez (R-CO)
Ex-US Rep Henry Bonilla (R-TX)

Third Tier
Teo Fuavai (AS)
Lily Nunez (CO)
Betsy Werronen (DC)
Tony Parker (DC)
Diane Adams (IN)
James Bopp, Jr. (IN)
Darrell Crate (MA)
Jody Dow (MA)
Ron Kaufman (MA)
Joyce Lyon Terhes (MD)
Louis Pope (MD)
Peter Cianchette (ME)
Doug Russell (MO)
Tom Rath (NH)
Joe Kyrillos (NJ)
David Norcross (NJ)
Lynn Windel (OK)
June Hartley (OR)
Solomon Yue (OR)
Vance Day (OR)
Robert Manning (RI)
Cindy Costa (SC)
Randy Frederick (SD)
Stephanie Chivers (TN)
Sara Gear Boyd (VT)
Donna Gosney (WV)

Fourth Tier

First Tier
US Sen Lamar Alexander (R-TN)
US Sen Bob Corker (R-TN)
US Rep Jeff Miller (R-FL)
US Rep Adam Putnam (R-FL)
US Rep Nathan Deal (R-GA)
US Rep Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA)
US Rep Don Manzullo (R-IL)
US Rep Steve Buyer (R-IN)
US Rep Dan Burton (R-IN)
US Rep Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI)
US Rep Roger Wicker (R-MS)
US Rep Sue Myrick (R-NC)
US Rep Lee Terry (R-NE)
US Rep Gresham Barrett (R-SC)
US Rep Marsh Blackburn (R-TN)
US Rep David Davis (R-TN)
US Rep John Duncan (R-TN)
US Rep Zach Wamp (R-TN)
US Rep Louie Gohmert (R-TX)

Second Tier
Ex-US Sen Bill Frist (R-TN)
Ex-US Sen Howard Baker (R-TN)
Ex-US Sen Al D’Amato (R-NY)

Third Tier
Denise McNamara (TX)

Fourth Tier

by @ 9:20 am. Filed under 2008 Misc., Endorsements
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17 Responses to “State of the Race: Intrade and Endorsement Race”

  1. State of the Race: Intrade and Endorsement Race at Conservative Times--Republican GOP news source. Says:

    [...] post by MattC and software by Elliott [...]

  2. bobl Says:

    Former Congressman Jim Bunn endorsed Brownback and on his Oregon leadership team..

  3. MattyN Says:

    Bob Ehrlich is the former Governor of Maryland. Not quite in the first tier, sadly for the state of Maryland…

  4. bjalder26 Says:

    I thought Brownback dropped out?

  5. MattC Says:

    All fixed up. That’s what I get for typing the list at 1:00 this morning, I guess… :) Thanks.

  6. sampo Says:

    Romney pulls an 8.6 in winning in a general election matchup.

  7. sampo Says:

    what a terrible list

    McCain also gets endorsements from:
    Former Gov. & First Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge (R-PA)
    Former Gov. Buddy Roemer (LA)
    Henry Kissinger Former National Security Adviser and Secretary of State
    Alexander Haig, Former Secretary of State under President Ronald Reagan
    George Schultz, Former Secretary of State under President Ronald Reagan
    Lawrence Eagleburger, Former Secretary of State under President George H.W. Bush
    James Woolsey, former CIA Director under President Bill Clinton

  8. MattC Says:

    Gee thanks for the friendly recommendations, sampo. I added Ridge and Roemer. If we ever add a tier for ex-CIA directors or ex-NSA advisors I’ll let you know.

  9. sampo Says:

    er, ok. in the mean time, i look forward to Henry Kissinger’s endorsement holding more water than some peon state legislator.

  10. sampo Says:

    12 more for ya:
    Former Governor William Clements, Texas
    Former Governor Walter Peterson, New Hampshire
    Former Governor John McKernan, Maine
    Former Governor Jim Martin, North Carolin

    Former Senator Slade Gorton, Washington
    Former Senator Dan Coats, Indiana
    Former Senator Warren Rudman, New Hampshire

    Former Congressman Tom Loeffler, Texas
    Former Congressman Jim Courter, New Jersey
    Former Congressman Greg Ganske, Iowa
    Former Congressman Dick Zimmer, New Jersey
    Former Congressman Joseph J. DioGuardi, New York

  11. SGS Says:

    MattC (and Sampo), thank you for doing this endorement chart — again! I really do appreciate your effort with this. And Intrade, we have not had any post about it on this site for a while. I had forgotten about it completely. Thank you for posting it too.

  12. JS Says:

    You forgot Rep. Luis Fortuno’s (R-PR) endorsement of Giuliani.

  13. ACT Blog Says:

    Another hit for Thompson on Intrade today - down close to 10%

  14. marK Says:


    Look at the Intrade drop-off between third and fourth place. It looks like McCain is starting to establish himself in the 2nd tier.

  15. Joshua Says:

    Another 2nd tier for Rudy:

    Ex-Gov Bob Martinez (R-FL)

  16. Irish Right Says:

    I knew I could count on Sampo to find *some* negative for Romney, here.

  17. Joshua Says:

    Rudy picked up another 2nd tier endorsement:

    Ex-Sen Bob Kasten (R-WI)

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