Fmr. Clinton Aide, Executive Director of NY Democrat Party
“For most of my life, I’ve been an active Democrat,” said Gigi Georges. “I am proud to have worked for President Bill Clinton and then-Senator Hillary Clinton, and, during that time, I saw firsthand what can be accomplished by strong, bipartisan leadership. I know what it means to work across the aisle on issues that are important to the American people. And that’s why I am supporting Mitt Romney. Governor Romney has a plan to restore the prosperity this country deserves and expects. He will work with people of good will no matter what their party, and he will pursue the policies that are in the best interest of our country, no matter who proposes them. That’s what President Obama promised to do four years ago. But like so many of his promises, bipartisan cooperation is just another one he has broken. We can’t have four more years of failed policies and two parties that can’t work together. We need the change Mitt Romney is offering.” — Gigi Georges, special assistant to the President in the Clinton White House, and Senator Hillary Clinton's fmr. State Director.
“Speaking inside a chilly, dirt-floored livestock exhibition hall in the Franklin County Fairgrounds to a crowd of 2,800, Mr. Obama hailed the October jobs report out today as positive news. The news showed an uptick in unemployment to 7.9 percent...”
At 33 1/2 minutes: starts with Ohio's Governor and Lt. Governor, Sen. Rob Portman, then Speaker of the House John Boehner who is from Butler County. Then Paul Ryan speaks, who went to college at Miami University in the county.
Ohio Democrat, Fmr. U.S. Rep. James Stanton endorses Mitt Romney
“I supported Barack Obama in 2008 because I liked what he had to say. But after four years of painful unemployment and $5 trillion in new debt under President Obama, it's clear to me that he just hasn't gotten the job done...
“The economy is the top issue, but not the only issue that concerns me. As a Catholic Democrat, I was deeply disappointed by the Obama administration's decision to force Catholic organizations and charities to pay for certain medical services that violate their faith. Every woman deserves access to the services she needs, but that doesn't require forcing Catholic employers to act against their sincere religious beliefs. American Catholics hold different personal views on many issues, but we all agree that our Church, like every other faith, has the right to carry out its mission in accord with its beliefs and teachings. President Obama was wrong to put the bureaucratic implementation of his health care spending law ahead of the religious freedom of Catholics.
“Finally, in addition to economic security, I am concerned about President Obama's record on national security. The defense cuts that are coming would weaken America's ability to protect against serious threats and could cost thousands of defense industry jobs in Ohio. Even the president's own defense secretary, Leon Panetta, said that the scheduled defense cuts would "hollow out" the military...
“I am endorsing Gov. Mitt Romney because I believe it's time for new leadership. Governor Romney has the experience and the right plan to launch an American economic comeback -- by achieving energy independence, reducing our deficit, improving job training, supporting small businesses, and reforming our outdated tax code that too often gets in the way of job creation. That's a real plan to get people back to work.
“This Cleveland Democrat will be proud to stand with Gov. Mitt Romney on November 6.”
From the democrat that Seconded Barack Obama's nomination for president in 2008, Pres. Obama's 2008 Campaign Co-Chair, to a democrat governor, party leader and others, Barack Obama is being abandoned by democrats.
And those that did re-endorse Pres. Obama did so with less enthusiam, e.g.:
“Four years ago, this newspaper's editorial board enthusiastically endorsed Barack Obama... Today, we recommend President Obama's re-election... And yet our endorsement this year comes with less enthusiasm or optimism...
“This litany of missed opportunities, as much as the grim economic statistics that have become America's unacceptable new normal, left us sorely tempted to endorse Gov. Romney this fall.”
From the mailbag (Oct 22nd correspondence) — Reader question and answer:
“I am one of the critical. UNDECIDED voters.
“QUESTION ABOUT AN AD I SAW FOR 1ST TIME TODAY FROM THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN:
“MITT ROMMEY STATES THAT HE'S PREPARED TO 'REACH ACROSS THE ISLE' & WORK WITH ALL PARTIES TO GET THE JOB DONE. HAVE DONE IT BEFORE, I'LL DO IT AGAIN.”
“I assume he means he did this while Gov. of. MA.
“The ad does not give specific example(s) of what he actually got done.
“Would Mr. Romney please provide factual activity that supports this proclaimed accomplishment.
“Thank you for your email.
“This site is grass-roots and you can ask the campaign directly at: http://www.mittromney.com/contact-us
“However, I would be happy to give my answer as well, and I have noticed they are quite busy (at least they never got back with me with a question I sent) so you may not get a timely answer from them anyway.
“Perhaps the best example is Romneycare:
“As you may know, it was Gov. Romney's goal to reduce healthcare costs and provide healthcare insurance coverage for everyone. The legislature was not onboard with his idea, but through years of work and a lot of compromise, in his final year the law was passed unanimously in the senate (37-0) and almost unanimously in the house (154-2).
“By contrast Pres. Obama made no effort to get a bipartisan solution or cooperation on Obamacare.
“Obamacare passed strictly on party lines, 53-43 in the senate and 220-207 in the house, with even moderate democrats joining republicans in opposition (3 democrat senators joined the republicans in voting against it, and 32 democrat house members joined 175 republicans in opposing it).
“Below are 3 links as reference to what I said. The first explains Gov. Romney's plan and efforts, the 2nd gives the Massachusetts legislature votes and the third gives the U.S. congress votes.
“(Now, as a side issue, while the Obama campaign tries to say his legislation was the same as Gov. Romney's, I'd like to point out several examples of important differences and provide you some additional information, in case you are interested. Besides getting bi-partisan support, Romneycare was a 70 page law tailored to one state with broad statewide support. Obamacare is well over 2,000 pages that radically changes healthcare law in many ways including overturning every state's individual laws and programs in many instances. For someone like me who is self-employed, with money very tight right now, and who is relatively healthy, I have chosen a high-deductible plan that is relatively inexpensive. Under the new law, I will have to purchase a healthcare plan with a low-deductible, and that covers far more than I want and need. I've already looked into it, and my insurance premiums will approximately triple. It's been widely reported that about $700 billion was taken from medicare to pay for Obamacare, and after several years it will drastically increase the federal deficit, and there are many other serious concerns I and others have about it.)
“ - House report version of Obamacare that is 2454 pages.
“With a veto-proof democrat legislature (over 85% when he was governor), Mitt Romney faced large state budget deficits when he took office and the democrat senate leader said taxes must be raised. But Gov. Romney worked with the state legislature and was able to get them to agree to balance the budget without raising taxes. Not only that, he was able to set aside enough money that he left the state with a $2 billion surplus that was placed in a rainy day fund, when he left office. The only way he accomplished that was through strong leadership and a lot of communication and collaboration with the democrat senators and house members. (Working across the isle.) Mitt Romney met with the democrat House and Senate leaders every week and talked with many more democrat state legislators frequently in addition. By contrast U.S. republican congress leaders say Pres. Obama does not talk to them at all, and even many democrats and democrat leaders in congress say they have limited communication with the President.
“For more details and links to references, I have the following pages on the Massachusetts bugets and economic issues:
“Governor Romney got many things accomplished as governor, and almost all of it required obtaining cooperation with the democrat legislature. My personal favorite is Melanie's Law. She was a beautiful young girl who was killed by a drunk driver who had many repeated drunk driving offenses. Mitt Romney proposed a bill that would crack down on drunk drivers with serious repeat offenses so that this would never happen again to another Melanie. The state legislature opposed it, but he again used his ability to get things done through communication, pursuasion and in this case pressure, to get them to go along with that law. Other areas where I think he did great things was with education and with the energy policy in the state. References with links to these three examples can be found here:
“Thank you for the opportunity to give my answers.”
Oct 26, 2012
CNN Says Obama’s Math “Still Doesn’t Add Up”
Obama Campaign Advisor's words Haunt Obama
“As you cite these statistics that say the economy is improving, you almost do political damage to yourself. If you stand up and claim great progress you’re only frustrating this alienated middle-class more... Bush tastelessly did it from the 9th hole...”
Pres. Obama hit his 100th round of golf in June, compared with only 24 rounds for Pres. Bush. Meanwhile Obama told the American voters he spent “every waking hour... fighting as hard as I knew how for you!”
The following link documents his excessive vacationing, golfing, and so forth (compared to past Presidents) while telling voters everything is fine:
Pres. Obama's former Foreign Policy Advisor admits Foreign Policy is Dysfunctional
“To a significant extent, President Obama is the author of his own lackluster foreign policy... one that appears to drift from crisis to crisis, with little ability to look beyond the next few weeks...
“President Obama came into office with so much good will -- from his own staff, from the American people, and from the world. But through his own unforced errors, he's lost much of that goodwill. To some extent, his errors are errors of inexperience: Obama simply undervalued issues of strategy, structure, process, and personnel. These are understandable mistakes for a first-term president with little prior government experience (or management experience, for that matter).”
67th Annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner
As Chris Matthews said at the end - "Four for four. Four speeches, four good ones."
Held Oct 18th, this is a fundraiser for children's charities and other charities supported by the Archdiocese of New York. It is named after Alfred E. Smith, the first Catholic to run for president, who was defeated due to anti-Catholic biases, but who helped to open the door for Pres. Kennedy's successful bid.
“Mitt Romney got the city’s highest endorsement recently on President Barack Obama’s home turf...
“John Rukavina, 74, a Local 1 ironworker — who claims to have put up “every antenna and tower in Chicago since Marina Towers in 1974” — affixed a Romney banner as well as an American flag on the ABC antenna on Willis Tower minutes after it was completed Sept. 30.
“ “The flag is a symbol — an old ironworker’s custom — which is hung if the job went well,” said Rukavina, who said he worked on the Sears Tower antenna in 1978. He’s also worked on the John Hancock Center and New York’s World Trade Center.
“ “I promised my sister, Anna, a year ago I would use the burial flag of her husband, a World War II Navy veteran, when we topped off the antenna,” he told Sneed.
“ “But I didn’t tell anyone I was going to put up the Romney poster. I did that on my own and it was hard going. The wind was blowing like crazy that day,” he said. “But I wanted to make that gesture the last thing I did.
“ “Hey, I’d jump off a building to get Romney elected.”
“ “I can’t stand Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Obama,” said Rukavina, who worked for ISI Installation Services in Genoa, Ill.
“A 60-year ironworker now living in LaPorte, Ind., Rukavina is also the subject of a film being shot called “Cowboys of the Sky,” a documentary chronicling Rukavina’s work on 20 major antenna installations on the country’s tallest skyscrapers...
“The entire installation was filmed by a helicopter loaded with a gyro-camera used by Zoo City Productions... “He had no idea I was going to put up that poster,” Rukavina said. “But I had to take everything down because it’s my responsibility to make sure no one gets hurt and the wind could have ripped it loose.” ”
“Much ado has been made about Mitt Romney’s income and taxes...
“His charitable giving and income taxes paid equaled 43.45 percent of that income...
“I for one would rather have Mr. Romney’s contributions to charity to help those that, according to President Barack Obama, he “can’t identify with” than giving it to the president to give to the Solyndras or “Fast and Furious” programs of the world. Because he has been a good business man and made money he can afford to give away 29.33 percent of his income to help others.
“I still believe in a country where it is not bad to work hard, make money and give back. President Obama wants to take away and squander.”
Michelle Obama Broke Agreed Upon Rules, Clapped At Debate
“Nearly all of the audible applause came from those sitting away from the actual debate, but when FOX News' camera shot moved to a bird's-eye view it became apparent that the only applause from the participating debate audience came from first lady Michelle Obama. Mitt Romney's wife Ann was also sitting with the debate participants.
“According to the rules both campaigns agreed to [and announced to the audience], or the memorandum of understanding (MOA), there is to be no clapping from members of the debate audience.”
“CNN correspondent and second presidential debate moderator Candy Crowley disgraced herself tonight, repeatedly intervening to save a floundering President Obama and showing why many Americans were rightfully suspicious of her ability to moderate a presidential debate fairly.”
“If Tuesday night's presidential debate proved nothing else, it demonstrated one thing: CNN's Candy Crowley is definitely not an "uncommitted voter." The moderator's handling of the town-hall debate at Hofstra University was heavy-handed and one-sided throughout, not merely giving more time to President Obama, but repeatedly cutting off Mitt Romney when the Republican attempted to counter accusations from the president...”
Millions of Small Businesses Would See Tax Increases
“Researchers determined the plan would actually subject 2.1 million business owners to higher rates; specifically, those who pay pass-through taxes, like most partnerships, LLCs and S-Corporations. The result, less capital in the hands of business owners and diminished labor supply, would cost the United States an estimated $200 billion in economic output and 710,000 jobs.”
• Debate Moderator ensured Obama got last word in every question but one
• Debate Moderator frequently cut Romney off
• But Obama was given over 2 minutes more speaking time
• Would cut Romney off when his arguments started to damage Obama
• Would cut Romney off as soon as Obama gave a signal to halt
• Debate Moderator took sides
a. Obama stated a fact, Romney disagreed, she said Obama was right
b. Many news sites came out confirming she and Obama were wrong
c. Moderator reversed what Romney stated, so it favored Obama
d. Her reverse statement was incorrect
e. While remaining neutral with Romney, would agree with Obama
f. Referred to Romney as "Romley"
g. Other biased nuances (watch video for yourself)
(Details are documented immediately following.)
Many were concerned she would be biased:
Before the debate she let it be known she had her own agenda:
“As Crowley put it last week, “Once the table is kind of set by the town-hall questioner, there is then time for me to say, ‘Hey, wait a second, what about X, Y, Z?’”
“In the view of the two campaigns and the commission, those and other recent comments by Crowley conflict with the language the campaigns agreed to, which delineates a more limited role for the debate moderator...
“According to the debate-format language in the agreement, after each audience question and two-minute responses from the candidates, Obama and Romney are expected to have an additional discussion facilitated by Crowley. Yet her participation is meant to be limited. As stated in the document, “In managing the two-minute comment periods, the moderator will not rephrase the question or open a new topic … The moderator will not ask follow-up questions or comment on either the questions asked by the audience or the answers of the candidates during the debate or otherwise intervene in the debate except to acknowledge the questioners from the audience or enforce the time limits, and invite candidate comments during the two-minute response period.” The memo, which has been obtained by TIME, was signed by lawyers for the two campaigns on Oct. 3...
“The agreement... states... that the commission “shall provide each moderator with a copy of this agreement and shall use its best efforts to ensure that the moderators implement the terms of this agreement.” ...
“The commission sent back word that it would discuss the matter with Crowley and reconfirm her function. It is not known if such a conversation has taken place...
“Crowley referred all questions about the debate format to the commission.”
(All times listed used the start time of the debate video shown below.)
• Debate Moderator ensured Obama got last word in every time but once
There were 11 questions asked by Town hall participants.
By coin toss, Romney got to answer the first question first. Romney answered questions 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 11 first. (They were supposed to alternate, but after 8 questions there appeared to only be time for two more. She had Obama start twice in a row, then had Romney answer the next question. Although the debate was a little over time, she had Romney answer one more question first, ensuring Obama ended the debate with the last word.)
Question 1- (02:02) Romney answered, then Obama answered, then Romney replied, then Obama replied. Romney then tried to reply and she cut him off, stating "Mr. Romney, Governor Romney, there will be plenty of chances for you to go on... I will absolutely let you answer... Ok, you will certainly have lots of time here coming up." (But that time never came. She continued to cut him off question after question.)
Question 2- (10:19) Obama answered, then Romney answered, then Obama replied, then Romney replied, then Obama replied again, then Romney replied again. The moderator cut Romney off on his last reply, then asked Obama to reply one more time. After that, when Romney tried to reply one more time, she cut him off, stating "I've got to move you along." Gov. Romney pointed out "He actually got the first [answer to the] question, I get the follow-up." She answered "Actually in the follow-up it doesn't quite work that way, but I'm going to give you a chance here, I promise you, I'm going to." Undeterred, Gov. Romney tries to answer but both the moderator and Pres. Obama cut him off.
Question 3- (22:43) Romney answered, then Obama answered, then Romney replied. Moderator then instructs Obama to reply, directing a follow-up question at him. Romney then tries to reply, but moderator cuts him off and asks a separate answer. When he replies, she and Obama continue to try to cut him off, throughout his shorter reply.
Question 4- (35:30) Obama answered, then Romney answered. Moderator cuts Romney off, and asks Obama to reply. When Romney stands to respond, she stops him, saying "Mr. President," then waits for Pres. Obama to finish replying. She then states "I want to move this along" and calls on the next Town Hall participant to talk.
Question 5- (43:58) Romney notes, "I think I was supposed to get that last answer" but moderator, among other things, responds "it isn't quite as ordered as you think, but go ahead and use this two minutes anyway you would like to, the question is on the floor." Gov. Romney then responds to the discussion on question four and answers question five, being interrupted by Pres. Obama throughout. Pres. Obama then answers question 5 and Romney stands to reply. Moderator holds up her hands and quickly states "I want to move you both along to the next question because it's in the same wheel house, so you will be able to respond, but the president does get this question."
Question 6- (49:54) Obama answered, then Romney answered. This is the one question that moderator let Romney get the last word in. When Pres. Obama stands to reply she cuts him off.
Question 7- (56:56) Romney answered, then Obama answered. When Romney stands to reply, moderator cuts him off, quickly stating "Let's speak to if you could governor" as he starts to speak, and then continues "uhm, the idea of self deportation." Gov. Romney replied, "No, let me go back and speak to the points the president made." Although moderator let Obama speak uninterrupted for 2 minutes 46 seconds (2:46), when Gov. Romney started being especially damaging to the President, both he and the moderator start interrupting Gov. Romney 1 minute 44 seconds (1:44) into Romney's response. The moderator says to Gov. Romney "Please make it short, see all these people? They've been waiting for you, could you make it short?" When Gov. Romney replies to Obama's earlier accusation of his investments (which the moderator did not give Romney an opportunity to respond to) by noting that his own money is in a blind trust and noting that the president also has investments in the Cayman Islands, both Obama and the moderator insistently and loudly tried to cut Gov. Romney off. The moderator said during the interruptions "We're way off topic Governor Romney... We're way off immigration, if I could have you sit down Gov. Romney, thank you." As usual, she then lets Pres. Obama get the last word in, allowing him to speak for the next 1 minute 21 seconds.
Question 8- (1:07:23) Obama answered. After Obama completes talking and is walking away, moderator says "Mr. President, I've got to move this along, Governor?" as one of her faked attempts that she is also cutting the president off. Gov. Romney gives his response. Moderator then (in a manner that seems to be guiding a pre-planned discussion) asks the president to answer a question in follow-up. The president responds and then Gov. Romney responds. As Gov. Romney again begins to be very damaging to the president in his statements, both Pres. Obama and the moderator jump in on cutting the Governor off, with the moderator saying among other things "I want to move you on." She then lets the president get the final word in, as usual, as he gives a short, 20 second final reply.
Question 9- (1:15:53) Obama answered, (for a 2 minute 38 second or 2:38 duration), then Romney starts answering. 2 minutes 20 seconds (2:20) into Gov. Romney's answer, Pres. Obama cues moderator to cut Romney off and she immediately cuts in "Governor, Governor, if I could, the question was about these assault weapons..." (Governor Romney was talking about assault weapons, but he was addressing "Fast and Furious" and starting to make the president look very bad so they had to stop him.) The moderator starts rattling off statements and accusations that aren't true. Gov. Romney gives an effective answer and she again interrupts with another question. Obama then responds again by talking about education, after the moderator had cut Romney off in this question (and others) for going off-topic. She then interjects of Obama's comments "Yes, right." Then with about 30 seconds before Pres. Obama stops speaking she says "Mr. President, we need to move along here, I know you.." then politely lets him continue for another half a minute. Later, as he's wrapping up, she says the subject is on guns. As always, except once, she let him get the last word in. Pres. Obama spoke over 5 minutes on this question, while Gov. Romney spoke less than 3 minutes, much of which had interruptions and questions from the moderator.
Question 10- (1:24:41) Romney answered, then Obama answered. Moderator asks a follow-up question, then says "Mr. President", but Gov. Romney, having been railroaded by her the whole time and recognizing it's his turn to speak jumps in with the answer. Pres. Obama interrupts the Governor 36 seconds into his answer (similar to what Obama did all through the debate), asking the moderator "How much time do we have left, Candy?" Ignoring that Gov. Romney is speaking, the moderator speaks over the governor, answering "A few minutes" and turning to Romney says "Let me go to..." Gov. Romney raises his hand and says "Let me tell you", but she cuts the Governor off and says (only 40 seconds into Gov. Romney's reply), "Let me go to the president, here, because we really are running out of time" and asks the president a question. She lets Pres. Obama respond for another 55 seconds, and when he is done, she says "Thanks, Mr. President." Gov. Romney tries to respond and she cuts him off and says she wants to introduce him to the last questioner, again, effectively giving Pres. Obama the last word.
Question 11- (1:32:58) Romney answered (giving an answer that was 2 minutes 13 seconds long) and the moderator interrupts him at 2:06. Then Pres. Obama gives an answer (that was 2:08 long), never having been interrupted by the moderator as usual, and having gotten the last word again, as in each time but once, the debate now ends.
However, it's even worse than that. Her interruptions of Obama were mostly fake or meaningless. For example, in question 8, After Obama completes talking and is walking away, moderator says "Mr. President, I've got to move this along, Governor?"
See debate summary above or video below for more specific examples.
• Obama was given over 2 minutes more speaking time
Total speaking time for Pres. Obama was 43 minutes 29 seconds.
Total speaking time for Gov. Romney was 41 minutes 18 seconds.
Breakdown is as follows:
Q1- Obama: 3:24, Romney: 3:39
Q2- Obama: 6:01, Romney: 3:49
Q3- Obama: 5:23, Romney: 5:58
Q4- Obama: 4:48, Romney: 2:45
Q5- Obama: 2:42, Romney: 4:25
Q6- Obama: 2:42, Romney: 3:37
Q7- Obama: 4:29, Romney: 4:06
Q8- Obama: 3:49, Romney: 3:46
Q9- Obama: 5:03, Romney: 2:54
Q10- Obama: 3:00, Romney: 4:06
Q11- Obama: 2:08, Romney: 2:13
• Would cut Romney off when his arguments started to damage Obama
Read the question summaries above (especially for questions 7, 9 and 10) or watch the video below.
• Would cut Romney off as soon as Obama gave a signal to halt
The summary for questions 9 and 10 provide good examples. For the full effect, watch the full debate.
• Debate Moderator took sides
a. Obama stated a fact, Romney disagreed, she said Obama was right
View Question #8, starting at 1:07:23 in the video below.
Besides being obvious that a moderator should not take sides, this went against the signed agreement that the debate commission agreed to follow. As noted in the TIME magazine article in the previous section above, the terms were reiterated to the moderator right before the debate.
b. Many news sites came out confirming she and Obama were wrong
c. Moderator reversed what Romney stated, so it favored Obama
"ROMNEY: I want to make sure we get that for the record because it took the president 14 days before he called the attack in Benghazi an act of terror."
"CROWLEY: He -- he did call it an act of terror. It did as well take -- it did as well take two weeks or so for the whole idea there being a riot out there about this tape to come out. You are correct about that."
"ROMNEY: This -- the administration -- the administration indicated this was a reaction to a video and was a spontaneous reaction."
Incidentally, just a couple weeks earlier, Crowley said this:
“Why didn't this administration, why did it take them until Friday, after the September 11th attack in Lybia, to come to the conclusion that it was premeditated, and that there was terrorists involved? ...
“First they said it was not planned, first they said it was not planned, that it was part of this tape, all that stuff...”
e. While remaining neutral with Romney, would agree with Obama
For an example, see question 9 in the video below and summary above, where moderator says "Yes, right." when the president says he's done wonderful things in education. She only disagreed with Gov. Romney (as noted above) or interrupted him. She never agreed with him.
f. Referred to Romney as "Romley"
Question 1, the moderator starts off by calling the governor Romley. (See video)
Much more could be said, but this was an open display of propaganda and lies, where the moderator tag-teamed with Barack Obama in trying to prevent Mitt Romney from mortally wounding President Obama's reelection campaign.
Maine's CD2 has always been more conservative than its first congressional district (CD1). In 2008, Pres. Obama beat Sen. McCain by 61.5% to 38.5% (a 23% margin) in CD1 but only by 55.4% to 44.6% (a 10.8% margin) in CD2. (These results do not include the 2% that voted for other candidates.)
First, this means the electoral count is really 200-192.
Second, The map lags the true state of the election. All 50 states are not continuously polled. Not even all battleground states and those slightly leaning one way or the other are continuously polled. For example, the latest poll for Oregon was completed September 13th when Gov. Romney had his lowest poll numbers, and only one other poll is included (RealClearPolitics.com - Oregon). A drop of just 3.5% in Oregon's poll average would place it in toss-up status.
The latest national polls shows a virtual tie (with Gov. Romney currently 0.1% ahead). It could realistically result in more and/or darker red and lighter blue states on the map if all states were polled as frequently and recently as the national polls.
My opinion, based on my analysis of the trend and results of each state's polls, is that if Mitt Romney wins either Wisconsin or Ohio, he will win the election.
It is possible one or both of the next two debates will change that-- more likely with another strong showing resulting in a comfortable national win by Gov. Romney or two more strong showings by Governor Romney resulting in a blowout rather than a close race.
But Gov. Romney presently and has consistently trailed in the polls in both Ohio and Wisconsin by 1-2%.
Now, I do think that some polls are sometimes manipulated to sway opinion (more on that later), and even if one doesn't think that, they certainly recognize that polls are not consistent and accurate, with polls done on the same day by different organizations varying sometimes by large margins. (I personally think a more accurate estimate by Real Clear Politics would be to throw out outliers rather than average them in, but any approach has its drawbacks.)
And do not forget these poll results (for Ohio and Wisconsin) are well within the statistical error limits for those polls.
Pollsters try to make their final poll before election day as accurate as possible so they can have bragging rights of being a more accurate pollster (see Real Clear Politics' listing of final polls last presidential election). Certainly in the weeks and then days before the election, the polls will more realistically represent what the final outcome will be, due to their being much closer in time to the actual event as well as their wanting to get more close to the final, actual result as the days draw closer to election day.
Where it's going
A poll attempts to catch the present state, not the direction or trend.
There are many changes pointing favorably for Gov. Romney.
First, a very intangible (that polls don't measure) occurrence. There has been a much needed shakeup or change in the Romney campaign. The Romney family, frustrated at the deficiencies in the campaign, did an intervention, which included forcing the campaign officials to back off and 'let Mitt be Mitt' and convincing Mitt to stop listening to their advice. This is huge, and why I think Mitt did so well in the debate. (My brother said that in the 2008 election, as he observed in the news, when Mitt started taking advice more from his son and less from the political professionals (or operatives if you will) he did far better, with a significantly positive change.) I only wish Tagg and Ann had intervened earlier.
“For months, Ann Romney and her eldest son, Tagg, were dutifully supportive of the political professionals running Mitt Romney’s campaign. All the while, their private frustration was mounting.
“Shortly before the final debate, it finally boiled over.
“What followed was a family intervention... a “let Mitt be Mitt” approach they believed more accurately reflected the looser, generous and more approachable man they knew.
“Chief strategist Stuart Stevens — whom the family held responsible for allowing Romney’s personal side to be obscured by an anti-Obama economic message — has seen his once wide-ranging portfolio “fenced in” to mainly the debates, and the television advertising that is his primary expertise, according to campaign officials. Tagg Romney, channeling his mother’s wishes, is taking a much more active role in how the campaign is run...
“The move is oh-so-smart for Romney's campaign...
“Is it too late?
“There are two more debates, hundreds of millions of ads, and a pool of undecided and "lean" voters who haven't been sold on either candidate. At some point, they'll make up their minds, and the fact they haven't tossed their vote to Obama yet means they're open to Romney's closing argument. And it looks like it's gotten that much stronger.”
In looking at the breakdown, things look very optimistic. In 2008, McCain lost in Ohio by a 4% margin.
In 2008, 33% of absentee ballots went to registered democrats and only 19% to republicans, a 14% gap.
In 2012, 29% of absentee ballots went to democrats and 24% to republicans, a 5% gap, as of October 4th.
Furthermore, the 2012 election cycle has seen large gains in the ratio of registered republicans compared to 2008:
• Cuyahoga County (includes Cleveland) was +36% Dem., now +30% democrat.
• Franklin County (includes Columbus) was +5% Dem., now +5% republican.
• Hamilton County (includes Cincinnati) was +7% Rep., now +13% republican.
• Champaign County was +3% Rep., now +23% republican.
• Columbiana County was +9% Dem., now +9% republican.
• Crawford County was +3% Dem., now +12% republican.
• Erie County was +24% Dem., now +7% democrat.
• Greene County was +4% Dem., now +19% republican.
• Harrison County was +22% Dem., now +5% democrat.
• Licking County was even (tied), now +16% republican.
• Montgomery County was +29% Dem., now +5% democrat.
• Muskingum County was +1% Dem., now +16% republican.
• Pickaway County was +12% Dem., now +15% republican.
• Seneca County was +1% Dem., now +13% republican.
• Summit County was +33% Dem., now +6% democrat.
• Wood County was +10% Dem., now +1% republican.
The above is in part due to removing 450,000 dead voters and duplicate registrations, but at a minimum that will eliminate the possibility of those votes being fraudulently cast. (Barack Obama won the state in 2008 by far fewer votes.)
As a result of the shift, University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart said,
“Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where--assuming Republicans vote for Romney--the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio's voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”
Update: This afternoon the Romney campaign released this memo:
“First, to be clear, the Romney-Ryan campaign will be victorious in the Buckeye State on November 6th and elect Governor Mitt Romney as the 45th President of the United States...
“Second, the race in Ohio is a dead heat and will be decided by the passion and energy of voters and Romney-Ryan volunteers on the ground. Each day more and more Ohioans embrace Governor Romney’s vision to move America forward and his plan to strengthen middle class families...
“Ohioans are not prepared to live through four more years like the last four years and they are ready for change... The more time Governor Romney has spent in Ohio, the greater his support in the state has grown...
“Lastly, as we’ve long argued, public opinion is not an event, it is a process. Our robust grassroots campaign combined with Governor Romney’s strong public performances and our paid advertising are influencing the process in our favor...” (The memo continues with details and news reports.)
(The law was promoted because the aborted baby sometimes lives/suffers for hours.)
2001: In arguing against the "Born Alive" bill, State Sen. Obama stated:
"This puts the burden on the attending physician... if that fetus or child, however you want to describe it, is now outsite the mother's womb... but let's say there's movement or some indication that in fact, they're not just coming out limp and dead...
"The only plausible rationale to my mind, for this legislation would be... if the physician discovered after the labor had been induced that in fact he made an error... that that physician, of his own accord or her own accord would not try to exercise the sort of medical measures and practices involved in saving that child...
"[This] is really designed simply to burden the orginal decision of the woman and the physician... I think it's important to understand that this issue ultimately is about abortion, and not live births."
(Pres. Obama's changing excuses and lies of why he opposed this law - NRLC.org)
For Born Alive Provision
October 2004: “As the Chicago Tribune reported on October 4, 2004, “Obama said that had he been in the U.S. Senate two years ago, he would have voted for the Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, even though he voted against a state version of the proposal.” ”
“The legislation [FOCA] would make unlimited abortions throughout pregnancy the national law and overturn hundreds of pro-life laws from partial-birth abortion bans to parental involvement laws in all 50 states.”
“A candidate must meet three qualifications to be considered for an EMILY’s List endorsement: back abortion rights, including the right to late-term (or ‘partial-birth’) abortions; be a Democrat; and, in primary elections, be a woman.”
April 29, 2009 – Pres. Obama reafirms his support of FOCA:
“The Freedom of Choice Act is not my highest legislative priority. I believe that women should have the right to choose, but I think that the most important thing we can do to tamp down some of the anger surrounding this issue is to focus on those areas that we can agree on.”
Pres. Obama didn't pursue FOCA because he couldn't:
2009 – “FOCA has not been introduced in the current Congress. Versions of it had been introduced in nearly every session of Congress for the last 20 years. Only once, in 1993, did the bill make it as far as being considered by committees. It has never reached the floor of either the House or Senate...
“A nationwide postcard campaign against FOCA and other abortion-related issues was sponsored earlier this year by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops. Many pro-life organizations focused their concerns about FOCA...”
“Look at the health care bill in the Senate and see if you see what I see: On abortion, it accomplishes nearly all of what FOCA wanted...
“HEALTH BILL MAKES ABORTION A REGULATORY REQUIREMENT. In the Senate health bill, the federal government provides or requires health insurance that does exactly that...
“HEALTH BILL SIDE-STEPS STATE LAWS...
“FOCA: REQUIRES ABORTION PROMOTION. FOCA would disallow “government programs and facilities that pay for or promote childbirth and other health care without subsidizing abortion,” ... HEALTH BILL REGULATIONS would accomplish precisely that...
“FOCA seeks to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law. It would remove all restrictions on abortion in state statutes - including restraints on late-term abortions and parental notification laws. It would also entrench taxpayer funding of abortion. Moreover, it would compel Catholic health-care facilities to provide the heinous procedure.”
“If the two men fought to a draw - as conflicting post-debate polls seem to suggest - that counts as a win for Biden and his boss, Democratic President Barack Obama, who needed to stop the bleeding after his lackluster debate performance last week against Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.”
In CNN Poll of Polls, Mitt Romney Leads Pres. Obama
“According to a new CNN Poll of Polls today that averages three new non-partisan, live-operator surveys released Monday and Tuesday, Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters, with Obama at 47%...
“President Obama said: I will not run negative ads in my campaign. (He did)
“I will close Guantanamo in my first year in office. (He didn't)
“I will end extraordinary rendition [apprehension and extrajudicial transfer of a person from one country to another]. (He didn't)
“I will have an immigration reform bill to congress in my first year. (He didn't)
“I will have no lobbyists in my campaign or my administration. (He did)
“I will not increase taxes on individuals earning less than $200,000 (He did)
“I will not vote for retroactive immunity for the telecoms. (He did)
“I will use public financing for my campaign. (He didn't)
“All health care reform debate will be open and transparent. (It wasn't)
“support a public option for health care reform. (He didn't)..”
ACORN Makes News Again for Possible Election Fraud
“In September, the Obama campaign got 1.8 million donations from small contributors who did not break the $200 threshold requiring that their information be reported to the Federal Election Commission. They gave the campaign 98 percent of the $181 million it raised that month, a figure vastly higher than its take in any previous month...
“Now, in the last month of the 2012 race, Newsweek magazine has raised serious questions about Obama’s fundraising and its possible reliance on foreign donors and outright fraud to generate its funding.
“Newsweek raises questions, in particular, about Robert W. Roche, the co-founder and chairman of the board of Acorn International Inc., a media and branding direct-sales company based in Shanghai. He also owns the Obama.com website, which appears on the Internet throughout the world. Roche’s site links to Barackobama.com, the official campaign site, where it invites people to donate to the campaign. Obama.com gets 2,000 visits a day, two-thirds of which are from foreigners. Is it a giant money-laundering operation to feed foreign money into the Obama campaign? ...
“Roche, by the way, has visited the White House 11 times during Obama’s tenure, according to the visitor log.
“These questions arise because the Obama campaign, unlike Romney’s or, for that matter, Hillary Clinton’s in 2008, refuses to ask donors for their CVV number (the number on your credit card that one is often asked for after giving one’s name and expiration date). The CVV is designed to assure that the donor is actually physically holding the card...
“In 2008, The Washington Post reported that Mary Biskup was reported to have donated more than $170,000 to the Obama campaign in small donations. But Biskup says she never gave any money to the campaign. Some other donor must have given the money in her name.
“Given these past problems and the Obama campaign’s sudden influx of small donors, Newsweek wonders why the campaign does not require CVV numbers to minimize the chances of fraud.
“The magazine noted that the campaign’s past scandals “make it all the more surprising that the Obama campaign does not use … the card verification value [system].” The magazine added that “the Romney campaign, by contrast, does use the CVV — as has almost every other candidate who has run for president in recent years.” ”
“President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign has been soliciting foreigners for donations, an explosive report from the conservative Government Accountability Institute (GAI) shows.
“Those foreign donors are allegedly visiting the Obama campaign’s donation solicitation Web pages through a social media website the campaign controls, and through an outside website that serves mostly Internet users from outside the United States.
“About 20 percent of visitors to the “my.barackobama.com” social media website “originated from foreign locations,” the report found. That Web address is owned and controlled by the Obama re-election campaign.
“ “At no point during the [website's] subscription process is a visitor asked whether he or she can legally donate to a U.S. election,” GAI notes.
“ “Once a visitor signs up, he or she immediately begins receiving solicitations for donations. In fact, numerous foreign nationals report receiving solicitation letters and thank you emails from the campaign for their support. Some of these emails have been reposted on blog sites to encourage friends to click on the donate link or get their names on the email list.” ...
“Federal law prohibits ”a foreign national, directly or indirectly,” from making “a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value … in connection with a Federal, State, or local election. The same section of law makes it a federal crime to “solicit, accept, or receive” such campaign contributions...
“GAI cites examples comprising what it calls “but a sample” of a large trend of Obama’s campaign soliciting foreign nationals for campaign donations. Those examples focus on foreign bloggers posting fundraising-request emails from the Obama campaign.
“The group identified such Obama fundraising solicitations sent to Chinese, Azerbaijani, Vietnamese, Dutch, Italian, Japanese, Norwegian and Egyptian bloggers.
“In a report accompanying the GAI report’s release, former U.S. Attorney Ken Sukhia concluded that the Obama campaign is clearly soliciting donations from foreign nationals...
“In addition to soliciting foreigners for donations, the Obama campaign has chosen not to employ industry-standard safeguards against collecting unlawful foreign donations via its social media and online process, the GAI report says...
“GAI notes that the Obama campaign’s failure to use such security measures in its online donation system likely costs it “millions of dollars in additional fees” because “card processors charge higher transaction fees for campaigns that fail to use the CVV.”
“The group estimates that Obama’s 2008 campaign, which raised over $500 million, likely “paid at least an additional $7.25 million in fees to the banks that it could have avoided if it were to have used the CVV,” assuming the campaign paid typical rates for processing credit card transactions.
“The Obama campaign claims it has its own methods of confirming the legitimacy of credit card transactions. But it does require CVV data from credit card purchasers of hats, t-shirts and other campaign merchandise...
“In addition to fundraising practices employed at “my.barackobama.com,” another website — “Obama.com” — directs Web traffic to pages where the president’s campaign fills its coffers, GAI concluded...
“Obama.com was registered in September 2008 to Robert Roche, an Obama campaign bundler living in Shanghai, China, according to GAI.
“ “Roche is an American citizen (originally from Chicago)... By October 2, 2008, Obama.com began redirecting all visitors to specific content on my.barackobama.com,” GAI wrote. “Upon arrival to my.barackobama.com, visitors were asked for their name, email, and zip code and presumably were sent solicitation letters, like every other visitor who provides that information to the campaign... Sometime during 2012, the webpage began sending visitors to a donation page on the Obama campaign’s website. The campaign’s donation page loads an affiliate number to track the traffic and donations coming via the website. It continues to do so today.” ...
“The Obama campaign has not responded to The Daily Caller’s request for comment regarding this report.”
“According to knowledgeable sources, a national magazine and a national web site are preparing a blockbuster donor scandal story.
“Sources told Secrets that the Obama campaign has been trying to block the story...
“According to the sources, a taxpayer watchdog group conducted a nine-month investigation into presidential and congressional fundraising and has uncovered thousands of cases of credit card solicitations and donations to Obama and Capitol Hill, allegedly from unsecure accounts, and many from overseas...
“At the end of the 2008 presidential campaign, the Obama-Biden effort was hit with a similar scandal. At the time, the Washington Post reported that the Obama campaign let donors use "largely untraceable prepaid credit cards that could potentially be used to evade limits on how much an individual is legally allowed to give or to mask a contributor's identity.”